Some interesting Rudy developments over the last two days. First, Siena College released a poll showing Rudy trouncing Gov. Paterson 56%-29%. Second, Rudy seems to have decided to launch his campaign yesterday with an interview with the NY Post (hard to know for sure because it is a Giuliani superstition never to formally announce his candidacy for any office). In it, he comes out fervently against gay marriage. This set of events taken together portend very badly for Mr. Giuliani. Or as he might say: very, very badly.
If you look at the Siena numbers Rudy is off his high mark in both the head-to-head and his favorable, unfavorable. Less people like him and more dislike him - it's becoming a trend according to Siena's numbers. The revealing number - less focused on - is the Rudy/Cuomo head-to-head. Here, Andrew trounces Rudy 53%-39%. You see how fast that 56% becomes 39% when presented with an actual choice besides Paterson? That 56% is Rudy's high water mark in this race. For a well-known figure like Giuliani going from 39% to 51% in a general election will be extremely difficult. Further, I would argue that if the election were held today between Rudy and Paterson, Rudy would not even garner 56%. These are extremely bad numbers for Team Rudy and I know they know it. They need a new strategy and new thinking over there in Times Square (home of Giuliani Partners). Do we have any evidence of that? Quite to the contrary.
The smart thing to do in order to reintroduce Rudy to the voters - and make no mistake that is what has to be done - is to show what he did in '93': a kinder, thoughtful, more compassionate Rudy. An image to counter the established mean Rudy impression left over from '89' and the police riot in front of City Hall. Over in Times Square they believe that this race boils down to continuing the '08' campaign while sprinkling in some '89' and 9/11. Bad, bad miscalculation. And what is the first major policy pronouncement to be heard from candidate Giuliani? He has staked out the far-right 'no at all costs' anti-gay marriage position. Someone over there in Times Square thinks they're still campaigning in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri or - I almost started to type Iowa - Georgia. Rudy is not only out of step with the majority of New Yorkers on this issue he is positioning himself to be on the wrong side of history. My guess is this is no accident. Tony Carbonetti, Peter Powers and whoever else makes up the Rudy political braintrust these days believes that the Rove/Bush strategy of winning at the margins will work here in NY. Create a coalition of Catholics, conservative Hispanics, blue collar democrats, maybe even some blacks since they hate gay marriage more than any other minority group, along with upstate Republicans. It is sad beyond words that the man who was Christ like after 9/11 feels that this is the only way he can now win an election in NY. He appears at a fundraiser and says of his dais companion Newt Gingrich, "I consider him a role model." Now as everyone knows I think Gingrich is great and correct on many issues; but this is New York State, you can't win here proclaiming Gingrich as your role model and Dick Cheny as the model Vice President. He still thinks he's appearing at rubber chicken dinners in San Antonio or Orange County. But as the results of 2008 showed, those voters didn't want him either. What should Rudy be doing? Sometimes people over-think things when the answer is right there. 1993.
Instead of idiotic Republican fundraisers, Rudy should regain the steely nerve he used to have before he discovered G-5s and give a series of policy speeches as Reagan did in the late 70's. Appear before public policy groups - maybe even unfriendly ones - and discuss the problems facing the state. The one thing that always marked a Giuliani mayoral campaign was a great issues team. Lots of well reasoned and enunciated policy statements. The hallmark of the presidential race? A great pride in never answering a policy questionnaire or issuing any innovative position papers.
He balanced eight budgets and reinvented the most intransigent government in the country. And all he has to say is some badly written vague platitudes about too much state spending? He was a prosecutor during the last great Wall Street shakeout. While I wouldn't play up the prosecutor side too much, he should be reminding voters that he was doing this while Andrew was still in law school. Don't get me wrong. I loved when Rudy would get tough, just not mean. There's a line and his coterie wouldn't then and surely won't now tell him when he crosses it. If you read my past posts I lay out very clearly the mistake Rudy made in listening to what I call the Randy Levine strategy. In essence it says that to position Rudy nationally you had to go hard right and discard the non-partisan, independent, problem solver label that made him mayor twice. Is there any question that had Randy Levine, and I am sure many others, not been listened to that Rudy could basically walk into the Governor's Mansion? Even notwithstanding the incredible number of scumbags he's taken on as clients over the last seven years.
The state is in crisis. He wants to lead us out of it. So far makes sense. But I know - because I know the man and all the players involved - that they believe they can do this on the cheap. I don't mean money; they'll raise whatever they need. I mean he doesn't want to work for this as he did in '93.' Rudy has no fire for anything anymore other than personal financial gain. That he can get worked up about. Unfortunately not much else.
If he wants to be governor, great. But he is going to have to work for it. If he wants to be like Bush and appear only before staged friendly audiences that will clap whenever he says 9/11 - forget it. And as I have said before, he is going to have to explain himself for 2007 and 2008. The positions he took were not only at variance with his own past statements they won't sell to New York State in 2010. Starting from 39% and bashing gay marriage just doesn't seem like a smart opening strategy to me. I'd say Team Rudy is not off to a winning start.
Good luck to Rudy
Posted by: freelance writers | April 09, 2011 at 06:01 PM